Energy Skills Demand Forecasting Model: design & scoping

The UK energy sector is changing fast as it moves towards net zero, with new technologies, rising investment and the decommissioning of traditional assets. Yet there was no single source of consistent employment and skills data for the sector as a whole.

The Energy Skills Alliance brings together industry leaders from renewables, nuclear, oil and gas, regulators and trade unions, with the support of the UK and Scottish Governments. It commissioned Oxford Economics and Work Advance to scope and design a model to forecast the sector's skills needs.

We reviewed existing research across energy sub-sectors and developed a new definition of the sector based on technologies and energy sources, since standard classifications cannot capture renewables, hydrogen or carbon capture. We also built a consistent occupational framework and consulted around 20 industry stakeholders on their needs, data and evidence gaps.

Stakeholders strongly backed a single, sector-wide model. We recommended that it should do more than store data: it should test transition scenarios and build consensus, show whether skills supply can meet demand, and help workers move into and across sub-sectors.

Our proposed framework combines a core econometric model with expert validation through a Technical Advisory Group and an industry Observatory, plus a budget for rapid-response research. A two-year roadmap would deliver industry-validated forecasts within six months.